The AUD/USD and NZD/USD currency pairs are experiencing a corrective pullback after reaching medium-term highs earlier this week. This movement comes amid a broader reassessment of risk in anticipation of the release of the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting. Investors and market participants are trimming positions in risk-sensitive assets, reacting to a mix of factors including monetary policy signals, geopolitical rhetoric, and tariff developments.

Additional pressure on commodity currencies was driven by today’s meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). As expected, the central bank cut its key interest rate, prompting further selling in the NZD/USD pair and fuelling speculation about potential further easing should global demand deteriorate.

The release of the FOMC minutes, scheduled for this evening, remains a key focus. Investors are looking for additional clues regarding the outlook for Federal Reserve policy easing in the second half of the year. In addition, Thursday’s US GDP data will be closely watched and may serve as a significant guide for short-term moves in the US dollar and commodity-linked currency crosses.

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is trading near the 0.6450 mark, correcting from recent highs. Support appears to lie around the 0.6400 level, while today’s release of the Fed minutes could trigger increased volatility in the pair. Technical analysis of AUD/USD suggests a potential decline towards the 0.6400–0.6370 range, as a "doji" candlestick pattern has formed on the daily timeframe.

Key events that could influence AUD/USD pricing:

• Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (USA);
• Today at 21:00 (GMT+3): FOMC meeting minutes release;
• Tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+3): Private New Capital Expenditure data (Australia).
  
  

Technical Analysis of NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair has fallen to the 0.5920 level following the RBNZ’s rate decision. The nearest support is at 0.5900, and a break below this could lead to further downside. A return to upward momentum is possible if the price strengthens convincingly above 0.6340. Buyers have attempted to breach this resistance three times in the past two months, so far without success.

Key events that could influence NZD/USD pricing:

• Today at 20:00 (GMT+3): Reserve Bank of New Zealand press conference;
• Tomorrow at 04:00 (GMT+3): ANZ Business Confidence Index (New Zealand);
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims;
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP data.

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